Method and track record
How the estimate is built, tested and published, with its full error history and its limits.
Real-time track record
Every day the published estimate is archived. When INSEE publishes a month, the last estimate made before that release is compared with the first official figure: the real test, with no revised data.
1 months compared with INSEE’s first figure: mean absolute gap 0.68 points, 1 of 1 inside the 80% range.
| Month | Estimate of | INSEE release | Estimate | INSEE first figure | Gap | Inside the range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 2026 | 5 October 2026 | 6 October 2026 | +0.3% | -0.3% | +0.7% | Yes |
How the estimate is built
INSEE publishes the industrial production index about 40 days after each month ends. In the meantime, other data that come out faster already say something about activity. This estimate combines them to put a number on the month before the official release.
- Electricity. National consumption published by RTE, corrected for temperature, day of the week and month of the year. Without that correction, a cold month would look like an industrial boom.
- Business climate. INSEE’s summary indicator from its business surveys.
- Insolvencies. Insolvency proceedings opened, from BODACC notices.
- Interest rates. The gap between French and German 10-year yields, published by the ECB.
A regularised linear model (ridge regression) links these signals to the monthly change in production. Each data point is used only from its actual publication date, so an estimate never sees data that wasn’t yet known.
How it is tested
For every month since January 2016, the model is retrained only on the data available at that date, then compared with the figure INSEE published later. It competes with a naive forecast that carries forward the latest known change. March to July 2020 are left out of training: their extreme swings distorted what the model learned.
Result, excluding the pandemic: a root mean squared error of 1.26 points against 1.32 for the naive forecast, 5% better. The Diebold–Mariano test gives p = 0.07: an encouraging gain, but not statistically proven at the 5% level.
Known limits
- Revised data. INSEE revises past figures, and the test uses the latest version, so the scores below are somewhat optimistic. Since October 2026 every release is archived as published, to measure real-time performance.
- September. Since 2022, weather-corrected electricity drops sharply every September, probably because habits changed after the energy crisis. The September estimate is likely biased downward. The variants tested to correct it, and why they weren’t adopted, are on the Model page.
- The month before. The same model also estimates the previous month, without using the extra month of production published in between.
Sources and licences
RTE éCO2mix via ODRE, INSEE and BODACC (DILA): Licence Ouverte / Etalab 2.0. Interest rates: European Central Bank. Temperatures: Open-Meteo, CC BY 4.0. The code and the full data history are public on GitHub: the code under the MIT licence, the data produced by this project under CC BY 4.0.
The estimate against published figures
Monthly change in industrial production, %. Each estimate uses only the data available on its date.
- Published by INSEE
- Estimate
Show the data
| Month | Published by INSEE | Estimate | Naive forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| August 2026 | -0.3% | +0.3% | +0.1% |
| July 2026 | -0.6% | -0.2% | +0.1% |
| June 2026 | 0.0% | +0.6% | +0.1% |
| May 2026 | -0.1% | -0.3% | 0.0% |
| April 2026 | 0.0% | +0.6% | +0.1% |
| March 2026 | +1.3% | -0.2% | +0.1% |
| February 2026 | -0.7% | -0.3% | +0.1% |
| January 2026 | 0.0% | +0.5% | +0.1% |
| December 2025 | -0.7% | 0.0% | +0.1% |
| November 2025 | +0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| October 2025 | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.1% |
| September 2025 | +1.0% | -0.4% | +0.1% |
| August 2025 | -1.3% | 0.0% | -0.1% |
| July 2025 | -0.1% | -0.1% | +0.1% |
| June 2025 | +3.1% | +0.6% | +0.1% |
| May 2025 | -0.4% | -0.4% | +0.1% |
| April 2025 | -1.5% | +0.2% | 0.0% |
| March 2025 | -0.2% | +0.2% | +0.1% |
| February 2025 | +1.5% | -0.3% | +0.1% |
| January 2025 | -0.3% | -0.1% | +0.1% |
| December 2024 | -0.3% | +0.4% | +0.1% |
| November 2024 | +0.1% | -0.1% | +0.1% |
| October 2024 | -0.3% | +0.2% | 0.0% |
| September 2024 | -0.7% | -0.7% | 0.0% |
| August 2024 | +0.7% | +0.2% | +0.1% |
| July 2024 | +0.3% | +0.2% | +0.1% |
| June 2024 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| May 2024 | -1.3% | -0.2% | +0.1% |
| April 2024 | +1.0% | +0.4% | +0.1% |
| March 2024 | -0.7% | +0.1% | +0.1% |
| February 2024 | +0.6% | 0.0% | +0.1% |
| January 2024 | -0.5% | -0.3% | +0.1% |
| December 2023 | +0.5% | 0.0% | +0.1% |
| November 2023 | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.1% |
| October 2023 | +0.1% | -0.3% | +0.1% |
| September 2023 | 0.0% | -0.4% | +0.1% |
| August 2023 | -0.2% | +0.1% | +0.1% |
| July 2023 | 0.0% | +0.2% | 0.0% |
| June 2023 | -1.2% | +0.1% | 0.0% |
| May 2023 | +2.1% | -0.2% | +0.1% |
| April 2023 | +0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| March 2023 | -1.4% | +0.3% | +0.1% |
| February 2023 | +1.5% | -0.2% | 0.0% |
| January 2023 | -1.6% | -0.4% | 0.0% |
| December 2022 | +0.9% | +0.8% | +0.1% |
| November 2022 | +1.3% | -0.1% | +0.1% |
| October 2022 | -2.1% | -0.6% | +0.1% |
| September 2022 | -0.6% | -0.9% | +0.1% |
| August 2022 | +2.6% | -0.1% | +0.1% |
| July 2022 | -1.4% | -0.1% | +0.1% |
| June 2022 | +0.7% | +0.2% | 0.0% |
| May 2022 | +1.3% | -0.5% | +0.1% |
| April 2022 | -0.8% | +0.4% | +0.1% |
| March 2022 | -0.6% | -0.1% | +0.1% |
| February 2022 | -1.2% | -0.1% | +0.1% |
| January 2022 | +2.0% | -0.5% | 0.0% |
| December 2021 | +0.5% | +0.5% | +0.1% |
| November 2021 | -2.0% | +0.5% | 0.0% |
| October 2021 | +2.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| September 2021 | -1.5% | -0.4% | +0.1% |
| August 2021 | -0.3% | +0.7% | 0.0% |
| July 2021 | +0.8% | +0.3% | +0.1% |
| June 2021 | -0.5% | -0.6% | +0.1% |
| May 2021 | 0.0% | +0.2% | +0.1% |
| April 2021 | 0.0% | -0.2% | +0.1% |
| March 2021 | +1.5% | +0.2% | 0.0% |
| February 2021 | -4.2% | -0.4% | +0.1% |
| January 2021 | +3.0% | +0.6% | +0.1% |
| December 2020 | -0.6% | +1.1% | +0.1% |
| November 2020 | -1.6% | -0.6% | +0.1% |
| October 2020 | +2.1% | +1.3% | 0.0% |
| September 2020 | +1.6% | -0.8% | -0.4% |
| August 2020 | +1.0% | -1.3% | -1.3% |
| July 2020 | +4.4% | -2.1% | -2.0% |
| June 2020 | +12.4% | +1.8% | +2.7% |
| May 2020 | +19.3% | +3.6% | +2.2% |
| April 2020 | -25.0% | +2.4% | -0.2% |
| March 2020 | -20.8% | -0.6% | -0.2% |
| February 2020 | +1.6% | +0.1% | +0.2% |
| January 2020 | +1.9% | +0.5% | +0.1% |
| December 2019 | -2.1% | -0.4% | 0.0% |
| November 2019 | -0.8% | +0.2% | -0.1% |
| October 2019 | +0.1% | +0.4% | +0.1% |
| September 2019 | +1.1% | -0.2% | -0.1% |
| August 2019 | -1.3% | +0.4% | +0.4% |
| July 2019 | +0.8% | +0.4% | -0.2% |
| June 2019 | -3.2% | -0.3% | 0.0% |
| May 2019 | +1.8% | -0.1% | +0.1% |
| April 2019 | +0.2% | +0.3% | 0.0% |
| March 2019 | -0.3% | +0.2% | 0.0% |
| February 2019 | 0.0% | -0.8% | -0.1% |
| January 2019 | +0.6% | +0.6% | +0.2% |
| December 2018 | +1.0% | -0.5% | -0.2% |
| November 2018 | -1.2% | +0.6% | +0.2% |
| October 2018 | +1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| September 2018 | -1.1% | -0.5% | +0.1% |
| August 2018 | +0.4% | -0.3% | -0.3% |
| July 2018 | -0.5% | +0.3% | +0.2% |
| June 2018 | +1.9% | +0.6% | +0.2% |
| May 2018 | -1.1% | +0.7% | -0.1% |
| April 2018 | -1.1% | -1.9% | -0.2% |
| March 2018 | +0.8% | +2.3% | +0.5% |
| February 2018 | +1.4% | +0.4% | -0.1% |
| January 2018 | -3.7% | -1.0% | 0.0% |
| December 2017 | +1.1% | +1.0% | 0.0% |
| November 2017 | +0.3% | +0.4% | -0.1% |
| October 2017 | +0.5% | -0.1% | 0.0% |
| September 2017 | +1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| August 2017 | +0.3% | +0.6% | +0.2% |
| July 2017 | 0.0% | -0.3% | -0.3% |
| June 2017 | -1.1% | 0.0% | +0.2% |
| May 2017 | +2.3% | +1.0% | -0.4% |
| April 2017 | -0.9% | -0.5% | +0.2% |
| March 2017 | +1.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| February 2017 | -0.9% | -0.6% | +0.2% |
| January 2017 | +0.1% | +0.1% | -0.6% |
| December 2016 | -0.7% | -0.5% | +0.1% |
| November 2016 | +2.1% | 0.0% | +0.2% |
| October 2016 | -0.4% | +0.2% | -0.4% |
| September 2016 | -0.9% | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| August 2016 | +1.8% | +0.3% | +0.1% |
| July 2016 | -0.1% | +0.2% | +0.3% |
| June 2016 | -0.6% | -0.1% | -0.4% |
| May 2016 | -1.8% | 0.0% | +0.2% |
| April 2016 | +1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| March 2016 | -0.8% | +0.2% | -0.4% |
| February 2016 | -0.2% | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| January 2016 | +1.6% | 0.0% | +0.4% |
| Method | Root mean squared error | Right direction |
|---|---|---|
| Estimate | 1.26 | 60% |
| Naive forecast | 1.32 | 47% |
Model diagnostics
Beyond the average error, these checks test whether the estimate is well calibrated, stable over time and unbiased. All use the test’s months excluding the pandemic.
| Method | Root mean squared error | Mean absolute error | Mean bias | Out-of-sample R² vs naive | Right direction | p (Diebold–Mariano) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naive forecast | 1.32 | 1.02 | -0.07 | — | 47% | — |
| Ridge (published) | 1.25 | 0.97 | -0.05 | +9.7% | 60% | 0.07 |
| Gradient boosting (not published) | 1.33 | 1.06 | -0.01 | -1.1% | 54% | 0.54 |
Bias: average of estimate minus published figure; negative means the estimate runs slightly low on average. R²: the share of the naive forecast’s error the model removes. Gradient boosting does worse than ridge, so it isn’t published.
Is the range well calibrated?
Over 98 months since February 2018, the published figure fell inside the 80% range in 80% of months. Each range used only the errors known on its date: a well-calibrated range aims for 80%.
Estimate against published figure
Each dot is a month, excluding the pandemic. On the diagonal the estimate would be perfect. A cloud flatter than the diagonal means a cautious estimate that moves less than reality.
Show the data
| Month | Published by INSEE | Estimate |
|---|---|---|
| August 2026 | -0.3% | +0.3% |
| July 2026 | -0.6% | -0.2% |
| June 2026 | 0.0% | +0.6% |
| May 2026 | -0.1% | -0.3% |
| April 2026 | 0.0% | +0.6% |
| March 2026 | +1.3% | -0.2% |
| February 2026 | -0.7% | -0.3% |
| January 2026 | 0.0% | +0.5% |
| December 2025 | -0.7% | 0.0% |
| November 2025 | +0.1% | 0.0% |
| October 2025 | +0.2% | +0.3% |
| September 2025 | +1.0% | -0.4% |
| August 2025 | -1.3% | 0.0% |
| July 2025 | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| June 2025 | +3.1% | +0.6% |
| May 2025 | -0.4% | -0.4% |
| April 2025 | -1.5% | +0.2% |
| March 2025 | -0.2% | +0.2% |
| February 2025 | +1.5% | -0.3% |
| January 2025 | -0.3% | -0.1% |
| December 2024 | -0.3% | +0.4% |
| November 2024 | +0.1% | -0.1% |
| October 2024 | -0.3% | +0.2% |
| September 2024 | -0.7% | -0.7% |
| August 2024 | +0.7% | +0.2% |
| July 2024 | +0.3% | +0.2% |
| June 2024 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| May 2024 | -1.3% | -0.2% |
| April 2024 | +1.0% | +0.4% |
| March 2024 | -0.7% | +0.1% |
| February 2024 | +0.6% | 0.0% |
| January 2024 | -0.5% | -0.3% |
| December 2023 | +0.5% | 0.0% |
| November 2023 | +0.3% | +0.4% |
| October 2023 | +0.1% | -0.3% |
| September 2023 | 0.0% | -0.4% |
| August 2023 | -0.2% | +0.1% |
| July 2023 | 0.0% | +0.2% |
| June 2023 | -1.2% | +0.1% |
| May 2023 | +2.1% | -0.2% |
| April 2023 | +0.2% | 0.0% |
| March 2023 | -1.4% | +0.3% |
| February 2023 | +1.5% | -0.2% |
| January 2023 | -1.6% | -0.4% |
| December 2022 | +0.9% | +0.8% |
| November 2022 | +1.3% | -0.1% |
| October 2022 | -2.1% | -0.6% |
| September 2022 | -0.6% | -0.9% |
| August 2022 | +2.6% | -0.1% |
| July 2022 | -1.4% | -0.1% |
| June 2022 | +0.7% | +0.2% |
| May 2022 | +1.3% | -0.5% |
| April 2022 | -0.8% | +0.4% |
| March 2022 | -0.6% | -0.1% |
| February 2022 | -1.2% | -0.1% |
| January 2022 | +2.0% | -0.5% |
| December 2021 | +0.5% | +0.5% |
| November 2021 | -2.0% | +0.5% |
| October 2021 | +2.7% | 0.0% |
| September 2021 | -1.5% | -0.4% |
| August 2021 | -0.3% | +0.7% |
| July 2021 | +0.8% | +0.3% |
| June 2021 | -0.5% | -0.6% |
| May 2021 | 0.0% | +0.2% |
| April 2021 | 0.0% | -0.2% |
| March 2021 | +1.5% | +0.2% |
| February 2021 | -4.2% | -0.4% |
| January 2021 | +3.0% | +0.6% |
| December 2020 | -0.6% | +1.1% |
| November 2020 | -1.6% | -0.6% |
| October 2020 | +2.1% | +1.3% |
| September 2020 | +1.6% | -0.8% |
| August 2020 | +1.0% | -1.3% |
| February 2020 | +1.6% | +0.1% |
| January 2020 | +1.9% | +0.5% |
| December 2019 | -2.1% | -0.4% |
| November 2019 | -0.8% | +0.2% |
| October 2019 | +0.1% | +0.4% |
| September 2019 | +1.1% | -0.2% |
| August 2019 | -1.3% | +0.4% |
| July 2019 | +0.8% | +0.4% |
| June 2019 | -3.2% | -0.3% |
| May 2019 | +1.8% | -0.1% |
| April 2019 | +0.2% | +0.3% |
| March 2019 | -0.3% | +0.2% |
| February 2019 | 0.0% | -0.8% |
| January 2019 | +0.6% | +0.6% |
| December 2018 | +1.0% | -0.5% |
| November 2018 | -1.2% | +0.6% |
| October 2018 | +1.4% | 0.0% |
| September 2018 | -1.1% | -0.5% |
| August 2018 | +0.4% | -0.3% |
| July 2018 | -0.5% | +0.3% |
| June 2018 | +1.9% | +0.6% |
| May 2018 | -1.1% | +0.7% |
| April 2018 | -1.1% | -1.9% |
| March 2018 | +0.8% | +2.3% |
| February 2018 | +1.4% | +0.4% |
| January 2018 | -3.7% | -1.0% |
| December 2017 | +1.1% | +1.0% |
| November 2017 | +0.3% | +0.4% |
| October 2017 | +0.5% | -0.1% |
| September 2017 | +1.2% | 0.0% |
| August 2017 | +0.3% | +0.6% |
| July 2017 | 0.0% | -0.3% |
| June 2017 | -1.1% | 0.0% |
| May 2017 | +2.3% | +1.0% |
| April 2017 | -0.9% | -0.5% |
| March 2017 | +1.8% | 0.0% |
| February 2017 | -0.9% | -0.6% |
| January 2017 | +0.1% | +0.1% |
| December 2016 | -0.7% | -0.5% |
| November 2016 | +2.1% | 0.0% |
| October 2016 | -0.4% | +0.2% |
| September 2016 | -0.9% | -0.1% |
| August 2016 | +1.8% | +0.3% |
| July 2016 | -0.1% | +0.2% |
| June 2016 | -0.6% | -0.1% |
| May 2016 | -1.8% | 0.0% |
| April 2016 | +1.4% | 0.0% |
| March 2016 | -0.8% | +0.2% |
| February 2016 | -0.2% | -0.1% |
| January 2016 | +1.6% | 0.0% |
Rolling 24-month error
Root mean squared error over the previous 24 months, in points: lower is better.
- Estimate
- Naive forecast
Show the data
| Month | Estimate | Naive forecast |
|---|---|---|
| August 2026 | 0.94 | 0.93 |
| July 2026 | 0.94 | 0.93 |
| June 2026 | 0.93 | 0.92 |
| May 2026 | 0.93 | 0.92 |
| April 2026 | 0.95 | 0.96 |
| March 2026 | 0.95 | 0.98 |
| February 2026 | 0.91 | 0.96 |
| January 2026 | 0.91 | 0.95 |
| December 2025 | 0.91 | 0.96 |
| November 2025 | 0.90 | 0.95 |
| October 2025 | 0.90 | 0.95 |
| September 2025 | 0.91 | 0.95 |
| August 2025 | 0.86 | 0.93 |
| July 2025 | 0.82 | 0.90 |
| June 2025 | 0.82 | 0.90 |
| May 2025 | 0.70 | 0.69 |
| April 2025 | 0.84 | 0.80 |
| March 2025 | 0.77 | 0.74 |
| February 2025 | 0.84 | 0.80 |
| January 2025 | 0.84 | 0.80 |
| December 2024 | 0.88 | 0.87 |
| November 2024 | 0.87 | 0.88 |
| October 2024 | 0.91 | 0.91 |
| September 2024 | 0.96 | 1.02 |
| August 2024 | 0.96 | 1.01 |
| July 2024 | 1.11 | 1.13 |
| June 2024 | 1.14 | 1.17 |
| May 2024 | 1.14 | 1.18 |
| April 2024 | 1.18 | 1.18 |
| March 2024 | 1.20 | 1.18 |
| February 2024 | 1.20 | 1.18 |
| January 2024 | 1.21 | 1.20 |
| December 2023 | 1.32 | 1.26 |
| November 2023 | 1.32 | 1.26 |
| October 2023 | 1.41 | 1.33 |
| September 2023 | 1.51 | 1.44 |
| August 2023 | 1.52 | 1.47 |
| July 2023 | 1.54 | 1.47 |
| June 2023 | 1.54 | 1.48 |
| May 2023 | 1.52 | 1.46 |
| April 2023 | 1.44 | 1.40 |
| March 2023 | 1.44 | 1.40 |
| February 2023 | 1.42 | 1.40 |
| January 2023 | 1.59 | 1.62 |
| December 2022 | 1.64 | 1.70 |
| November 2022 | 1.68 | 1.70 |
| October 2022 | 1.67 | 1.71 |
| September 2022 | 1.64 | 1.70 |
| August 2022 | 1.71 | 1.75 |
| July 2022 | 1.68 | 1.73 |
| June 2022 | 1.69 | 1.73 |
| May 2022 | 1.71 | 1.76 |
| April 2022 | 1.70 | 1.80 |
| March 2022 | 1.70 | 1.79 |
| February 2022 | 1.70 | 1.79 |
| January 2022 | 1.70 | 1.78 |
| December 2021 | 1.66 | 1.77 |
| November 2021 | 1.66 | 1.78 |
| October 2021 | 1.69 | 1.85 |
| September 2021 | 1.64 | 1.80 |
| August 2021 | 1.63 | 1.78 |
| July 2021 | 1.62 | 1.78 |
| June 2021 | 1.62 | 1.77 |
| May 2021 | 1.62 | 1.77 |
| April 2021 | 1.65 | 1.78 |
| March 2021 | 1.69 | 1.81 |
| February 2021 | 1.70 | 1.81 |
| January 2021 | 1.51 | 1.60 |
| December 2020 | 1.43 | 1.49 |
| November 2020 | 1.40 | 1.49 |
| October 2020 | 1.41 | 1.49 |
| September 2020 | 1.45 | 1.44 |
| August 2020 | 1.38 | 1.40 |
| February 2020 | 1.33 | 1.32 |
| January 2020 | 1.31 | 1.32 |
| December 2019 | 1.39 | 1.48 |
| November 2019 | 1.34 | 1.43 |
| October 2019 | 1.33 | 1.43 |
| September 2019 | 1.33 | 1.43 |
| August 2019 | 1.33 | 1.43 |
| July 2019 | 1.28 | 1.39 |
| June 2019 | 1.28 | 1.37 |
| May 2019 | 1.16 | 1.24 |
| April 2019 | 1.12 | 1.30 |
| March 2019 | 1.12 | 1.32 |
| February 2019 | 1.18 | 1.37 |
| January 2019 | 1.17 | 1.39 |
| December 2018 | 1.17 | 1.39 |
| November 2018 | 1.13 | 1.38 |
| October 2018 | 1.15 | 1.41 |
| September 2018 | 1.12 | 1.38 |
| August 2018 | 1.12 | 1.36 |
| July 2018 | 1.16 | 1.40 |
| June 2018 | 1.15 | 1.40 |
| May 2018 | 1.12 | 1.35 |
| April 2018 | 1.12 | 1.39 |
| March 2018 | 1.14 | 1.41 |
| February 2018 | 1.13 | 1.41 |
| January 2018 | 1.11 | 1.38 |
| December 2017 | 1.02 | 1.18 |
Over the latest 24 months, the estimate does slightly worse than the naive forecast (0.94 against 0.93): the gain measured over the whole period hasn’t held up recently.
Distribution of errors
Estimate minus published figure, in points, in 0.5-point bins. Mean bias: -0.05.
Show the data
| Error (points) | Months |
|---|---|
| -3.0 to -2.5 | 4 |
| -2.5 to -2.0 | 5 |
| -2.0 to -1.5 | 8 |
| -1.5 to -1.0 | 12 |
| -1.0 to -0.5 | 10 |
| -0.5 to 0.0 | 21 |
| 0.0 to 0.5 | 23 |
| 0.5 to 1.0 | 16 |
| 1.0 to 1.5 | 11 |
| 1.5 to 2.0 | 9 |
| 2.0 to 2.5 | 1 |
| 2.5 to 3.0 | 2 |
| 3.5 to 4.0 | 1 |
Stability of the weights
Weight of each standardised input at every monthly refit since January 2016. Flat lines mean a stable model; a weight that changes sign deserves attention.
Show the data
| Month | Latest published production growth | Corrected electricity, change this month | Corrected electricity, change last month | Business climate, gap to 100 | Business climate, change | Insolvency openings, year on year (%) | France–Germany yield spread (bp) | Yield spread, change (bp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 2026 | -0.062 | +0.249 | -0.142 | +0.010 | -0.034 | -0.092 | -0.018 | -0.007 |
| July 2026 | -0.062 | +0.252 | -0.143 | +0.009 | -0.034 | -0.092 | -0.016 | -0.007 |
| June 2026 | -0.063 | +0.253 | -0.144 | +0.009 | -0.034 | -0.092 | -0.017 | -0.007 |
| May 2026 | -0.064 | +0.257 | -0.147 | +0.008 | -0.038 | -0.091 | -0.016 | -0.005 |
| April 2026 | -0.064 | +0.263 | -0.141 | +0.008 | -0.035 | -0.087 | -0.019 | +0.002 |
| March 2026 | -0.064 | +0.264 | -0.139 | +0.008 | -0.036 | -0.088 | -0.018 | 0.000 |
| February 2026 | -0.066 | +0.269 | -0.137 | +0.008 | -0.035 | -0.089 | -0.015 | +0.002 |
| January 2026 | -0.065 | +0.268 | -0.138 | +0.009 | -0.034 | -0.089 | -0.012 | 0.000 |
| December 2025 | -0.066 | +0.267 | -0.139 | +0.009 | -0.034 | -0.088 | -0.013 | 0.000 |
| November 2025 | -0.065 | +0.264 | -0.137 | +0.008 | -0.033 | -0.089 | -0.013 | +0.001 |
| October 2025 | -0.065 | +0.278 | -0.140 | +0.010 | -0.036 | -0.089 | -0.018 | 0.000 |
| September 2025 | -0.055 | +0.278 | -0.133 | +0.009 | -0.033 | -0.085 | -0.013 | -0.001 |
| August 2025 | -0.055 | +0.278 | -0.137 | +0.009 | -0.033 | -0.086 | -0.013 | 0.000 |
| July 2025 | -0.044 | +0.262 | -0.129 | +0.014 | -0.032 | -0.081 | -0.021 | +0.005 |
| June 2025 | -0.044 | +0.263 | -0.131 | +0.014 | -0.033 | -0.080 | -0.021 | +0.006 |
| May 2025 | -0.038 | +0.272 | -0.125 | +0.012 | -0.033 | -0.077 | -0.015 | 0.000 |
| April 2025 | -0.039 | +0.268 | -0.122 | +0.012 | -0.031 | -0.077 | -0.014 | -0.001 |
| March 2025 | -0.037 | +0.275 | -0.127 | +0.014 | -0.036 | -0.075 | -0.025 | -0.004 |
| February 2025 | -0.038 | +0.277 | -0.125 | +0.013 | -0.034 | -0.076 | -0.023 | 0.000 |
| January 2025 | -0.037 | +0.275 | -0.126 | +0.012 | -0.036 | -0.075 | -0.021 | 0.000 |
| December 2024 | -0.038 | +0.275 | -0.129 | +0.012 | -0.036 | -0.076 | -0.022 | -0.001 |
| November 2024 | -0.036 | +0.272 | -0.132 | +0.011 | -0.035 | -0.075 | -0.020 | 0.000 |
| October 2024 | -0.037 | +0.281 | -0.134 | +0.011 | -0.040 | -0.074 | -0.021 | +0.001 |
| September 2024 | -0.036 | +0.274 | -0.128 | +0.013 | -0.039 | -0.075 | -0.022 | -0.003 |
| August 2024 | -0.036 | +0.273 | -0.134 | +0.013 | -0.039 | -0.077 | -0.022 | -0.004 |
| July 2024 | -0.036 | +0.273 | -0.134 | +0.013 | -0.038 | -0.077 | -0.022 | -0.004 |
| June 2024 | -0.038 | +0.276 | -0.130 | +0.012 | -0.038 | -0.072 | -0.022 | +0.001 |
| May 2024 | -0.039 | +0.275 | -0.126 | +0.013 | -0.036 | -0.074 | -0.022 | +0.002 |
| April 2024 | -0.040 | +0.272 | -0.123 | +0.012 | -0.032 | -0.071 | -0.022 | 0.000 |
| March 2024 | -0.041 | +0.273 | -0.126 | +0.013 | -0.034 | -0.073 | -0.022 | -0.002 |
| February 2024 | -0.041 | +0.275 | -0.122 | +0.013 | -0.032 | -0.074 | -0.021 | +0.001 |
| January 2024 | -0.041 | +0.270 | -0.125 | +0.014 | -0.033 | -0.077 | -0.024 | 0.000 |
| December 2023 | -0.042 | +0.271 | -0.130 | +0.013 | -0.033 | -0.077 | -0.023 | 0.000 |
| November 2023 | -0.041 | +0.273 | -0.127 | +0.013 | -0.032 | -0.078 | -0.023 | +0.001 |
| October 2023 | -0.051 | +0.329 | -0.143 | +0.013 | -0.052 | -0.092 | -0.026 | +0.005 |
| September 2023 | -0.041 | +0.281 | -0.115 | +0.014 | -0.031 | -0.077 | -0.023 | -0.002 |
| August 2023 | -0.041 | +0.282 | -0.121 | +0.014 | -0.033 | -0.077 | -0.023 | -0.002 |
| July 2023 | -0.039 | +0.281 | -0.124 | +0.013 | -0.033 | -0.068 | -0.021 | +0.003 |
| June 2023 | -0.042 | +0.332 | -0.149 | +0.015 | -0.040 | -0.091 | -0.022 | +0.009 |
| May 2023 | -0.042 | +0.337 | -0.140 | +0.015 | -0.037 | -0.092 | -0.022 | +0.006 |
| April 2023 | -0.049 | +0.341 | -0.134 | +0.014 | -0.036 | -0.078 | -0.023 | +0.009 |
| March 2023 | -0.054 | +0.348 | -0.140 | +0.012 | -0.043 | -0.088 | -0.024 | +0.009 |
| February 2023 | -0.048 | +0.349 | -0.124 | +0.013 | -0.040 | -0.075 | -0.021 | +0.018 |
| January 2023 | -0.047 | +0.343 | -0.129 | +0.013 | -0.042 | -0.076 | -0.027 | +0.015 |
| December 2022 | -0.049 | +0.353 | -0.114 | +0.011 | -0.037 | -0.086 | -0.027 | +0.016 |
| November 2022 | -0.022 | +0.282 | -0.126 | +0.014 | -0.024 | -0.063 | -0.020 | +0.009 |
| October 2022 | -0.035 | +0.365 | -0.127 | +0.012 | -0.048 | -0.074 | -0.024 | +0.014 |
| September 2022 | -0.042 | +0.350 | -0.109 | +0.009 | -0.041 | -0.097 | -0.033 | +0.005 |
| August 2022 | -0.034 | +0.352 | -0.123 | +0.011 | -0.047 | -0.088 | -0.028 | +0.009 |
| July 2022 | -0.033 | +0.352 | -0.120 | +0.010 | -0.045 | -0.089 | -0.029 | +0.008 |
| June 2022 | -0.033 | +0.357 | -0.130 | +0.004 | -0.044 | -0.106 | -0.031 | +0.004 |
| May 2022 | -0.037 | +0.366 | -0.130 | +0.009 | -0.047 | -0.097 | -0.030 | +0.001 |
| April 2022 | -0.032 | +0.366 | -0.130 | +0.011 | -0.053 | -0.092 | -0.030 | +0.005 |
| March 2022 | -0.030 | +0.363 | -0.135 | +0.020 | -0.044 | -0.085 | -0.029 | +0.003 |
| February 2022 | -0.016 | +0.370 | -0.152 | +0.007 | -0.037 | -0.095 | -0.026 | +0.001 |
| January 2022 | -0.017 | +0.368 | -0.154 | +0.006 | -0.037 | -0.095 | -0.028 | +0.001 |
| December 2021 | -0.029 | +0.378 | -0.157 | +0.030 | -0.038 | -0.100 | -0.026 | +0.001 |
| November 2021 | -0.033 | +0.447 | -0.151 | +0.003 | -0.066 | -0.101 | -0.032 | +0.007 |
| October 2021 | -0.030 | +0.446 | -0.145 | +0.013 | -0.067 | -0.102 | -0.031 | +0.004 |
| September 2021 | -0.033 | +0.450 | -0.139 | +0.024 | -0.073 | -0.109 | -0.030 | +0.002 |
| August 2021 | -0.032 | +0.449 | -0.140 | +0.019 | -0.068 | -0.107 | -0.030 | +0.001 |
| July 2021 | -0.032 | +0.449 | -0.142 | +0.018 | -0.069 | -0.107 | -0.030 | 0.000 |
| June 2021 | -0.034 | +0.452 | -0.143 | +0.019 | -0.062 | -0.104 | -0.030 | +0.003 |
| May 2021 | -0.023 | +0.398 | -0.134 | +0.021 | -0.041 | -0.095 | -0.025 | +0.001 |
| April 2021 | -0.041 | +0.465 | -0.127 | +0.028 | -0.084 | -0.097 | -0.021 | -0.003 |
| March 2021 | -0.047 | +0.364 | -0.115 | -0.004 | -0.081 | -0.138 | -0.046 | -0.001 |
| February 2021 | -0.027 | +0.335 | -0.151 | +0.013 | -0.092 | -0.107 | -0.029 | -0.001 |
| January 2021 | -0.027 | +0.372 | -0.194 | -0.013 | -0.025 | -0.155 | -0.047 | +0.005 |
| December 2020 | -0.017 | +0.310 | -0.171 | -0.020 | -0.051 | -0.139 | -0.050 | +0.003 |
| November 2020 | -0.017 | +0.295 | -0.158 | -0.012 | -0.040 | -0.132 | -0.044 | +0.006 |
| October 2020 | -0.042 | +0.322 | -0.176 | +0.001 | -0.030 | -0.111 | -0.035 | +0.005 |
| September 2020 | -0.132 | +0.356 | -0.220 | +0.007 | -0.070 | -0.106 | -0.041 | +0.004 |
| August 2020 | -0.133 | +0.352 | -0.221 | +0.008 | -0.066 | -0.108 | -0.039 | +0.005 |
| July 2020 | -0.134 | +0.351 | -0.219 | +0.008 | -0.066 | -0.110 | -0.039 | +0.006 |
| June 2020 | -0.132 | +0.352 | -0.218 | +0.008 | -0.067 | -0.106 | -0.038 | +0.010 |
| May 2020 | -0.131 | +0.363 | -0.212 | +0.008 | -0.067 | -0.109 | -0.039 | +0.003 |
| April 2020 | -0.128 | +0.349 | -0.181 | +0.008 | -0.063 | -0.110 | -0.037 | +0.013 |
| March 2020 | -0.084 | +0.307 | -0.180 | +0.007 | -0.036 | -0.097 | -0.024 | -0.003 |
| February 2020 | -0.110 | +0.353 | -0.204 | -0.001 | -0.046 | -0.104 | -0.021 | +0.006 |
| January 2020 | -0.105 | +0.337 | -0.200 | +0.006 | -0.052 | -0.100 | -0.031 | +0.009 |
| December 2019 | -0.102 | +0.348 | -0.200 | +0.010 | -0.051 | -0.101 | -0.034 | +0.007 |
| November 2019 | -0.103 | +0.341 | -0.196 | +0.011 | -0.054 | -0.101 | -0.036 | +0.011 |
| October 2019 | -0.109 | +0.353 | -0.190 | +0.006 | -0.057 | -0.097 | -0.030 | +0.011 |
| September 2019 | -0.139 | +0.351 | -0.179 | +0.012 | -0.062 | -0.121 | -0.040 | 0.000 |
| August 2019 | -0.144 | +0.347 | -0.176 | +0.010 | -0.057 | -0.125 | -0.038 | +0.002 |
| July 2019 | -0.141 | +0.324 | -0.176 | +0.028 | -0.064 | -0.132 | -0.040 | +0.009 |
| June 2019 | -0.138 | +0.314 | -0.190 | +0.013 | -0.058 | -0.158 | -0.036 | +0.013 |
| May 2019 | -0.136 | +0.316 | -0.187 | +0.014 | -0.058 | -0.158 | -0.036 | +0.011 |
| April 2019 | -0.135 | +0.315 | -0.192 | +0.017 | -0.054 | -0.158 | -0.035 | +0.010 |
| March 2019 | -0.140 | +0.321 | -0.194 | +0.013 | -0.055 | -0.161 | -0.037 | +0.007 |
| February 2019 | -0.144 | +0.320 | -0.199 | +0.012 | -0.056 | -0.162 | -0.037 | +0.010 |
| January 2019 | -0.151 | +0.320 | -0.214 | +0.007 | -0.031 | -0.161 | -0.035 | +0.004 |
| December 2018 | -0.166 | +0.336 | -0.217 | +0.019 | -0.033 | -0.147 | -0.040 | +0.009 |
| November 2018 | -0.165 | +0.340 | -0.196 | +0.010 | -0.022 | -0.154 | -0.034 | +0.014 |
| October 2018 | -0.168 | +0.333 | -0.195 | +0.015 | -0.025 | -0.151 | -0.036 | +0.015 |
| September 2018 | -0.176 | +0.338 | -0.192 | +0.009 | -0.026 | -0.157 | -0.035 | +0.014 |
| August 2018 | -0.183 | +0.341 | -0.186 | +0.016 | -0.030 | -0.157 | -0.037 | +0.021 |
| July 2018 | -0.169 | +0.338 | -0.174 | +0.003 | -0.018 | -0.167 | -0.029 | +0.015 |
| June 2018 | -0.198 | +0.345 | -0.239 | +0.016 | -0.053 | -0.218 | -0.047 | +0.018 |
| May 2018 | -0.204 | +0.350 | -0.241 | +0.008 | -0.052 | -0.221 | -0.045 | +0.017 |
| April 2018 | -0.281 | +0.414 | -0.265 | +0.026 | -0.077 | -0.242 | -0.062 | +0.015 |
| March 2018 | -0.283 | +0.430 | -0.226 | +0.007 | -0.058 | -0.236 | -0.058 | +0.014 |
| February 2018 | -0.219 | +0.332 | -0.153 | +0.062 | -0.062 | -0.196 | -0.053 | -0.011 |
| January 2018 | -0.219 | +0.321 | -0.155 | +0.057 | -0.064 | -0.192 | -0.054 | -0.011 |
| December 2017 | -0.219 | +0.322 | -0.155 | +0.059 | -0.063 | -0.192 | -0.054 | -0.010 |
| November 2017 | -0.223 | +0.340 | -0.173 | +0.049 | -0.056 | -0.198 | -0.053 | -0.021 |
| October 2017 | -0.225 | +0.343 | -0.179 | +0.027 | -0.057 | -0.189 | -0.051 | -0.017 |
| September 2017 | -0.267 | +0.390 | -0.194 | +0.033 | -0.070 | -0.207 | -0.060 | -0.025 |
| August 2017 | -0.272 | +0.395 | -0.197 | +0.025 | -0.073 | -0.209 | -0.062 | -0.022 |
| July 2017 | -0.277 | +0.411 | -0.150 | +0.053 | -0.065 | -0.208 | -0.056 | -0.051 |
| June 2017 | -0.253 | +0.327 | -0.120 | +0.022 | -0.056 | -0.185 | -0.064 | -0.040 |
| May 2017 | -0.256 | +0.315 | -0.123 | +0.034 | -0.056 | -0.185 | -0.059 | -0.048 |
| April 2017 | -0.253 | +0.324 | -0.070 | +0.003 | -0.041 | -0.172 | -0.083 | -0.082 |
| March 2017 | -0.197 | +0.237 | -0.044 | +0.011 | -0.026 | -0.152 | -0.067 | -0.074 |
| February 2017 | -0.201 | +0.243 | -0.054 | +0.010 | -0.028 | -0.151 | -0.067 | -0.073 |
| January 2017 | -0.198 | +0.231 | -0.049 | +0.013 | -0.026 | -0.149 | -0.068 | -0.069 |
| December 2016 | -0.145 | +0.182 | -0.049 | -0.004 | -0.015 | -0.123 | -0.044 | -0.067 |
| November 2016 | -0.138 | +0.184 | -0.050 | +0.001 | -0.016 | -0.127 | -0.047 | -0.067 |
| October 2016 | -0.139 | +0.174 | -0.042 | +0.010 | -0.018 | -0.129 | -0.053 | -0.069 |
| September 2016 | -0.103 | +0.128 | -0.039 | -0.003 | -0.004 | -0.098 | -0.033 | -0.042 |
| August 2016 | -0.105 | +0.123 | -0.037 | -0.001 | -0.004 | -0.099 | -0.033 | -0.042 |
| July 2016 | -0.102 | +0.123 | -0.040 | +0.004 | -0.008 | -0.100 | -0.035 | -0.041 |
| June 2016 | -0.109 | +0.119 | -0.045 | +0.022 | +0.004 | -0.093 | -0.041 | -0.033 |
| May 2016 | -0.107 | +0.121 | -0.063 | +0.009 | +0.010 | -0.082 | -0.033 | -0.024 |
| April 2016 | -0.099 | +0.135 | -0.067 | +0.019 | +0.008 | -0.083 | -0.035 | -0.023 |
| March 2016 | -0.099 | +0.135 | -0.068 | +0.019 | +0.008 | -0.083 | -0.035 | -0.022 |
| February 2016 | -0.045 | +0.072 | -0.032 | +0.003 | 0.000 | -0.042 | -0.016 | -0.014 |
| January 2016 | -0.015 | +0.024 | -0.010 | +0.001 | +0.001 | -0.016 | -0.005 | -0.005 |
Quarterly GDP: an experimental model
Data freshness
- Up to dateRTE éCO2mixlatest data 19 October 2026
- Up to dateINSEElatest data September 2026
- Up to dateECBlatest data September 2026
- Up to dateBODACClatest data 18 October 2026
- Up to dateOpen-Meteolatest data 18 October 2026