France Economic Pulse

French industrial output likely fell 0.8% in September 2026

Estimate made on 19 October 2026 from electricity consumption, business surveys, company insolvencies and interest rates. Latest official INSEE figure: -0.3% in August 2026.

Estimate revised on 10 October 2026, from -0.8%.

Industrial production index (2021 = 100)

Index published by INSEE, then the estimate for months not yet published, with an 80% range.

  • Published by INSEE
  • Estimate
  • 80% range
Show the data
MonthPublished by INSEEEstimate
August 2023101.3
September 2023101.3
October 2023101.4
November 2023101.7
December 2023102.2
January 2024101.7
February 2024102.2
March 2024101.6
April 2024102.5
May 2024101.2
June 2024101.3
July 2024101.6
August 2024102.3
September 2024101.7
October 2024101.4
November 2024101.5
December 2024101.2
January 2025100.9
February 2025102.4
March 2025102.1
April 2025100.6
May 2025100.2
June 2025103.4
July 2025103.3
August 2025102.0
September 2025103.0
October 2025103.2
November 2025103.4
December 2025102.7
January 2026102.7
February 2026102.0
March 2026103.4
April 2026103.4
May 2026103.3
June 2026103.3
July 2026102.7
August 2026102.3
September 2026101.5 (99.8 – 103.2)
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Months INSEE has not published yet
MonthEstimated change80% rangeINSEE release expected
September 2026-0.8%-2.5% to +0.8%around 4 November 2026

How the estimate has changed

The estimate is recomputed every day with the latest data. Each change splits exactly into new data, by source, and re-estimation of the model.

Estimate for September 2026, day by day

Estimated change (%) at each update, with the 80% range. The blue dot is INSEE’s first figure, once published.

  • Estimate
  • 80% range
Show the data
DateEstimate80% range
19 October 2026-0.84%-2.52% … +0.84%
18 October 2026-0.84%-2.52% … +0.84%
17 October 2026-0.84%-2.52% … +0.84%
16 October 2026-0.84%-2.52% … +0.84%
15 October 2026-0.84%-2.52% … +0.84%
14 October 2026-0.84%-2.52% … +0.84%
13 October 2026-0.84%-2.52% … +0.84%
12 October 2026-0.84%-2.52% … +0.84%
11 October 2026-0.84%-2.52% … +0.84%
10 October 2026-0.84%-2.52% … +0.84%
9 October 2026-0.83%-2.52% … +0.85%
8 October 2026-0.83%-2.51% … +0.85%
7 October 2026-0.83%-2.51% … +0.85%
6 October 2026-0.83%-2.51% … +0.85%
5 October 2026-0.44%-2.10% … +1.22%
4 October 2026-0.44%-2.10% … +1.22%
3 October 2026-0.44%-2.10% … +1.22%
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What moved the estimates (percentage points)
DateMonthChangePublished productionElectricityBusiness climateInsolvenciesRatesModel re-estimation
19 October 2026September 20260.00––––––
18 October 2026September 20260.00––––––
12 October 2026September 20260.00––––––
10 October 2026September 20260.00––––––
9 October 2026September 20260.00––––––
7 October 2026September 20260.00––––––
6 October 2026September 2026-0.39+0.01-0.37–––-0.03
5 October 2026August 20260.00––––––
4 October 2026August 20260.00––––––

How far can you trust it?

Tested on 123 months since January 2016 (excluding the pandemic), the estimate got the direction right 6 times out of 10, against 5 for a naive forecast. Its average error is 5% smaller than the naive forecast’s: an encouraging gain, but not yet statistically proven.

Real-time track record

1 months compared with INSEE’s first figure: mean absolute gap 0.68 points, 1 of 1 inside the 80% range.

Read the method and full track record

What this site does

Anticipate
Estimate French industrial production about six weeks before INSEE publishes it, from data that comes out every day.
State the uncertainty
Publish every estimate with its range and the full record of its past errors, misses included.
Show everything
Data, formulas, coefficients and code are public, so every number can be checked and reproduced.
Make public data useful
Bring scattered French and European open data together, readable in French and English.

The signals we track

Weather-corrected electricity consumption
93.8
index, 2019 = 100, September 2026
Business climate
96.4
index, long-run average = 100, September 2026
Insolvency proceedings opened
5,988
per month, September 2026
France–Germany 10-year yield spread
82
basis points, August 2026

See all indicators